Revisiting the quarterly investment dynamics in Brazil: 1996-2012

Vol. 36 No. 1 (2016)

Jan-Mar / 2016
Published March 1, 2020
PDF-Portuguese (Pt-BR)
PDF-Portuguese (Pt-BR)

How to Cite

Hamilton Matos dos Santos, Cláudio, André de Melo Modenesi, Gabriel Squeff, Lucas Vasconcelos, Monica Mora, Thais Fernandes, Thiago Moraes, Ricardo Summa, and Julia Braga. 2016. “Revisiting the Quarterly Investment Dynamics in Brazil: 1996-2012”. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 36 (1), 190-213. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572016v36n01a11.

Revisiting the quarterly investment dynamics in Brazil: 1996-2012

Cláudio Hamilton Matos dos Santos
Técnico de Planejamento e Pesquisa da Diretoria de Estudos Macroeconômicos (DIMAC) do IPEA
André de Melo Modenesi
Professor da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ – Brasil e pesquisador do CNPq.,
Gabriel Squeff
Técnico de Planejamento e Pesquisa da Diretoria de Estudos Macroeconômicos (DIMAC) do IPEA,
Lucas Vasconcelos
Técnico de Planejamento e Pesquisa da Diretoria de Estudos Macroeconômicos (DIMAC) do IPEA
Monica Mora
Técnica de Planejamento e Pesquisa da Diretoria de Estudos Macroeconômicos (DIMAC) do IPEA,
Thais Fernandes
Bolsista do Programa de Mobilização da Competência Nacional para Estudos sobre o Desenvolvimento (PROMOB) do IPEA
Thiago Moraes
Economista da Petrobras
Ricardo Summa
Professor da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ – Brasil,
Julia Braga
Professora da Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Rio de Janeiro, RJ – Brasil
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 36 No. 1 (2016), Jan-Mar / 2016, Pages 190-213

Abstract

This text discusses the data on and thestylized facts of the dynamics of Brazil´s grossfixed capital formation (GFCF) since 1995. It also presents new econometrics pecifications for the quarterly dynamics of the Brazilian GFCG in the 1996-2012 years that suggest new causal interpretations to the problemath and. The data makeclear the different dynamics of the GFCF in dwellings and other buildings and structures and in machinery and equipment – and, as a consequence, the crucial role of the latter variable in the dynamics of Brazilian aggregate investment. The econometric specifications, in turn, suggest shocks in the real exchange rate international commodity prices and public investment as underlying causal mechanisms of the quarterly behavior of the Brazilian GFCF.

JEL Classification: C22; C82; E22.


Keywords: Brazilian investment, national accounts, time series models