Capital intangível e direitos de propriedade intelectual: uma análise institucionalista
Alain Herscovici
This paper deals with the main evolutions that explain the emergence of new institutional arrangements that characterize the post-fordism. (i) Hence, I will show that the property rights modifications bring forth new forms of competition. (ii) Also, I will make explicit the concrete expressions of this new competition as well as how it translates itself in a sub-optimum allocation in the framework of the market game (iii) I will study the modifications of externalities nature produced by technical progress. (iv) Finally, I will analyze the macroeconomic implications in regard to growth mechanisms and to capital nature.
Vol.27, n.o3(107), 2007
   
IS-LM: uma história?
Alexandre Augusto Seijas de Andrade e Matheus Albergaria de Magalhães
For some economists, the IS-LM model is already past, corresponding to a remote phase of the history of economic thought. In this paper, we try to demonstrate that this is not necessarily true. At the same time, we take advantage of the model’s longevity to provide a brief account of some events in Macroeconomics. Also, we call attention for the increasing differences between “academic” and “practical” macroeconomists, a fact that may indicate the existence of problems pertaining to teaching and applications in the field. Despite all the model’s flaws, we believe that it hasn’t entered to the hall of historical icons of Economics yet and it may still be useful, at least in the sense of training younger generations of students with basic macroeconomic concepts.
Vol.24, n.o4(96), 2004
   
Federalismo e reforma fiscal
André Franco Montoro Filho
In Brazil there is a general consensus that fiscal adjustment measures are required to obtain price stability. Nevertheless this appears as an empty consensus because it is stated as general propositions with little operational content. This article intends to go a little further presenting fiscal issues and reforms related to the theory of fiscal federalism. It is argued that most of macroeconomic fiscal problems arises from an unclear division of duties between federal and state and local governments. Political resistances to change are reported and a scheme of fiscal federalism combined with revenue sharing is proposed as a way to overcome the obstacles to reform since it associates local demand diversity with regional income redistribution.
Vol.14, n.o3(55), 1994
   
As armadilhas do tripé da política macroeconômica brasileira
André Nassif

This paper analyses the so-called tripod of the Brazilian macroeconomic policy, which since 1999 has been combining an inflation target regime, a floating exchange rate regime and targets for primary fiscal surplus. I argue that, unless its modus operandi is changed, the tripod will not be able to free the Brazilian economy from another “possible trinity”: high real interest rates, real exchange rate appreciation and very low economic growth. After briefly analysing the theoretical base under the macroeconomic tripod, I will show why this macroeconomic policy regime, if it is evaluated in a medium or long-term perspective, has not been able to assure neither price stability nor economic growth. In addition to the suggestion of breaking with the Brazilian strategy of growing with foreign savings, the paper also suggests three main ways of changing the modus operandi of the Brazilian tripod: i) increase the time horizon for reaching the inflation target, as has been the experience of most countries that adopt this monetary policy regime; ii) restore the countercyclical role of the Brazilian fiscal policy; and iii) adopt a mix of instruments aiming at preventing the Brazilian currency from entering into a new cyclical trend of appreciation in real terms.


Vol.35, n.o3(140), 2015
   
Macroeconomic trouble and policy challenges in the wake of the financial bust
Angel Asensio
Contrasting with the 1929 great crisis, authorities intervened forcefully in 2008 to stop the disintegration of the financial system. Governments and central banks then sought to revise the prudential regulation in depth. It would be optimistic, however, to believe that prudential measures, alone, could deliver full economic recovery, at least in the countries that had been involved in the financial turmoil. Indeed, the collapse of the 'state of confidence' and the negative effects of private debts on consumption and investment decisions have fed depressive forces and policy challenges which could hold for a while, even once the financial sector is made safe. On the one hand, the economic slowdown and the direct and indirect assistance provided by the governments to the private sectors are having a heavy impact on public finances, meanwhile, on the other hand, the massive amounts of money which artificially inflated the prices of housing and financial products could produce inflationary pressures in the post-crisis period, unless a new assets bubble is allowed for. Authorities could therefore be facing high unemployment in a damaged context of public deficits and inflationary pressures. The paper aims at discussing these new challenges. The inadequacy of inflation targets and fiscal orthodoxy in a depressed economy is emphasized, and the outlines of a Post Keynesian alternative policy are examined.
Vol.31, n.o2(122), 2011
   
New-consensus macroeconomic governance in a keynesian world, and the keynesian alternative
Angel Asensio
The paper presents both the New Consensus and Keynesian equilibrium within the usual four competitive macro-markets structure. It gives theoretical explanations of the pernicious effects that the NCM governance, which has been designed for ergodic stationary regimes, brings about in Keynesian non-ergodic regimes. It put forward Keynesian principles of governance which include monetary, budgetary and fiscal instruments, and suggest new directions for the positive and normative analysis of macro-policies.
Vol.26, n.o4(104), 2006
   
Did ISI fail and is neoliberalism the answer for Latin America? Re-assessing common wisdom regarding economic policies in the region
Anil Hira
The second phase of Import Substituting Industrialization, commonly known as ISI2, involved the move in Latin America to “heavy” industrialization, from around 1950-80. This period of economic history has been reviled on both the Left and the Right as being one of either heightened dependency or one demonstrating the clear failure of state intervention in the economy. In this research note, I use a basic statistical analysis to back up other descriptive claims that the ISI2 period was rather one of mixed success, with macroeconomic volatility accompanying great progress in GDP and manufacturing growth. In a sense, the ISI2 period succeeded in industrializing the large economies of the period, and contrasts favorably with the record of the succeeding paradigm of neoliberalism. This research note seeks to raise questions about the way we look at the historical period of ISI2, and suggests that a more open-minded perspective could lead to a more effective and sustainable political economy paradigm for the region in the future.
Vol.27, n.o3(107), 2007
   
A hipótese do crescimento rápido. Novos argumentos
Antonio Barros de Castro

After the 1981-2003 quasi-stagnation, the Brazilian economy signals that it is back to fast growth. The aborted growth spurts in this period accumulated an expansion potential that is now emerging. The growth frustration was particularly significant in the case of the growth surge beginning in 1999, as an outcome of the large 1999 depreciation of the real and the substantial 1990s increase of productivity. Now this repressed growth is being spontaneously liberated. It may be additionally liberated by adequate economic policies. Improvements in macroeconomic policy and the implementation of mini micro reforms are consistent with this incremental approach. 


Vol.32, n.o1(126), 2012
   
A "credibilidade" da política econômica antiinflacionária e sua consistência temporal
Arthur Barrionuevo Filho
This article is a survey about the consequences of the credibility of government policies, one of the main developments in macroeconomic theory in the 80s. New classical economists used it to explain why, in the long-run, government policies fail when they intend to increase the level of employment above the natural rate. Even in the short run, they only achieve their aims if it is possible to cheat the private sector. The result will be to loose credibility and inflationary pressures. Other authors developed it as a tool to understand the relationship between government, political parties and pressure groups with economic policy. Finally, we comment some papers about the Brazilian inflation based on distributive conflict and compare them with explanations from credibility of policies.
Vol.14, n.o1(53), 1994
   
Macroeconomia com M4
Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal e Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang
This article is a remake of usual macroeconomic models, as the IS-LM. We use as exogenous (under the control of government) the ample monetary aggregate M4. We start by a careful analysis of the Walras’ identity, extending Simonsen (1983). As a result, it is possible to see that with M4 it is necessary to abandon either the IS - curve (i.e. equilibrium in the market for goods and services) or the LM - curve (equilibrium in the money market). Then, we analyze the demand for M4 in Brazil. Finally, we study a LM4 - LM macroeconomic model. The usefulness of the model is clear: one can directly verify the impact of variations on M4 in the macro variables.
Vol.15, n.o1(57), 1995
   
Introdução: debates, desempenho e as políticas de escolha política
Carol Wise
Despite the widespread adoption of market reforms in Latin America over the past decade, there is still no consensus about the type of exchange rate regime that would best complement a liberal economic model. While there has been a distinct shift from fixed to floating rates since the Mexican peso crisis of 1994, the empirical evidence is ambivalent when it comes to measuring policy success under any one regime. In light of this empirical ambivalence, this introductory article argues that a more fruitful line of research lies in understanding the political economy lessons that can be gleaned from the standpoint of exchange rate management. This entails, first, an examination of the conflicting pressures that special interests exert on policy officials to maintain the exchange rate at a certain level; and second, it requires analysis of the broader institutional mechanisms through which monetary policy is mediated. The article suggests that policy "success" or "failure" can depend as much on policymakers' tenacity and statecraft as on the technicalities of macroeconomic policymaking.
Vol.21, n.o3(83), 2001
   
Currency board da Argentina: os laços que unem?
Carol Wise
As the one Latin American emerging market country that has steadfastly adhered to a fixed exchange rate for more than a decade, this article examines the economic and political trade-offs that peso-dollar parity has entailed. In economic terms, the currency board has clearly fostered macroeconomic stability and fiscal prudence. Yet, the maintenance of a fixed currency regime in the context of volatile capital flows has also contributed to the steady appreciation of the peso over time. This trend, along with certain political deals (slow labor market reform and generous government transfers to the provinces) struck at the outset of the reform program, has greatly hampered the productivity and dynamism of the Argentine economy. The country's weak competitive position has been exacerbated by the Brazilian devaluation of 1999, and the lesson since then has how difficult it is to craft a political coalition to tackle the formidable microeconomic tasks now at hand.
Vol.21, n.o3(83), 2001
   
Notas críticas sobre a macroeconomia novo-keynesiana
Claudio Gontijo
Critical notes on new-Keynesian macroeconomics. This article shows that, in spite of its great steps towards reality, new-Keynesian macroeconomics seems to be a non-systematic construction with problems originated from “ad hoc” hypothesis required to explain the non neutrality of money and the existence of disequilibria in the short run. In particular, it seems that prices and wages rigidities stand in sandy bases and that the derivation of the IS and LM curves from neoclassical fundamentals is problematic. Even disregarding the apparent difficulties of the neoclassical theory of value and distribution, the new-Keynesian connections between interest rate, money, and output do not seem fully consistent.
Vol.29, n.o2(114), 2009
   
A alta recente dos preços das commodities
Daniela Magalhães Prates
This article suggests some explanations for the steady rise of the commodities prices since 2002. Firstly, it analyses the long and medium term trends of these price. Secondly, it explores the determinants of the recent rise which are the macroeconomic conditions of the international economic, the high growth rate of China and supply shocks that affect the production of some agriculture commodities.
Vol.27, n.o3(107), 2007
   
Uma avaliação das contribuições de Stiglitz à teoria dos mercados financeiros
Dante Mendes Aldrighi
An evaluation of Stiglitz’s Contributions to the Theory of the Financial Markets. The objective and originality of this paper lie in identifying Stiglitz’s main theoretical contributions to Financial Economics and in briefly portraying the contemporary economic thought out of which these contributions emerged as well as in suggesting their connections with the subsequent economic thought. Grounded on a detailed analysis of Stiglitz’s works on finance, his most important theoretical findings are singled out and gathered into four issues: (1) the conditions under which the Modigliani-Miller theorem is valid; (2) the inconsistency inherent to the efficient market hypothesis; (3) the microeconomic effects of asymmetrical information in financial markets; and (4) its real macroeconomic effects. In all of these topics, the focal point of Stiglitz’s theoretical research is the unrealistic underpinnings on which the Arrow-Debreu competitive equilibrium model relies. It is also emphasised that this same perspective he coherently followed to construct a fully-fledged theoretical framework would be preserved in his empirical investigations, notably about developing countries, on which he has concentrated effort since the beginnings of the nineties.
Vol.26, n.o1(101), 2006
   
Rethinking macroeconomic policies for development
Deepak Nayyar
The global economic crisis has created an opportunity to rethink macroeconomics for development. Such rethinking is both necessary and desirable. It is essential to redefine macroeconomic objectives so that the emphasis is on fostering employment creation and supporting economic growth instead of the focus on price stability alone. It is just as important to rethink macroeconomic policies which cannot simply be used for the management of inflation and the elimination of macroeconomic imbalances, since fiscal and monetary policies are powerful and versatile instruments in the pursuit of development objectives. In doing so, it is essential to the overcome the constraints embedded in orthodox economic thinking and recognize the constraints implicit in the politics of ideology and interests.
Vol.31, n.o3(123), 2011
   
Liberalização comercial, distribuição e emprego
Edward Amadeo e José Márcio Camargo
The paper approaches aspects of the political economy of trade liberalization. It examines the reasons for the establishment of protectionist practices, the social costs of such practices and the relation between distributive conflicts and protectionism, emphasizing the formation of distributive coalitions. We apply these concepts and ideas to the Brazilian case in order to examine the distributive effects of the protectio-nist structure which prevailed until the late 1980’s and the potential changes over the 1990’s. Finally, we develop a macroeconomic model to explore the effects of liberalization on the functional distribution of income and aggregate demand.
Vol.13, n.o4(52), 1993
   
As diferentes facetas da rigidez e flexibilidade dos salários na análise keynesiana
Edward J. Amadeo
The paper analyses different aspects of the role of wages in Keynesian Economics. It argues that a reduction in money-wages — a policy prescription to fight unemployment usually found in orthodox analysis — may have a negative effect on the level of activity. Also, it argues that the conventional view of keynesian macroeconomics (based on the rigidity of wages) misinterprets Keynes s own views in the General Theory. In the book Keynes points out that wide fluctuations of wages are not desirable since they would lend instability to the economic system.
Vol.8, n.o1(29), 1988
   
Cyclical variations of earnings inequality in Brazil
Eliana Cardoso
This paper shows that income distribution can change dramatically during the business cycle. This finding contrasts with the widespread belief that income distribu-tion changes slowly in the absence of wars and revolutions. Macroeconomics explains in good measure short-run variations in income distribution: inequality varies cycli-cally and it increases with inflation and unemployment. Furthermore, at least in Brazil, the minimum wage legislation does not contribute to a better income distribution. There is also evidence that populist policies which lead to real appreciation cannot be justified as supporting the poor. Thus, the best way to help the poor is demonstrably not through the manipulation of prices and wages, but probably through macro stability and a transparent tax-transfer system.
Vol.13, n.o4(52), 1993
   
O investimento privado na américa latina
Eliana Cardoso
This paper studies investment in Latin America and explores the relationship of investment with growth, exchange rates and the terms of trade. It addresses the theoretical issue of the relationship between the real exchange rate and the real price of capital with a model of a small open economy with four assets. It discusses the dynamics of both the real price of capital and the real exchange rate in response to different shocks, including a change in monetary policy, an increase in external interest rates and a deterioration of the terms of trade. In the model (with a nominal exchange rate rule fixed by the central bank) a deterioration of the terms of trade leads to an immediate decline of the real price of capital, followed by a depreciating real exchange rate while the real price of capital slowly recovers. The paper explores the determinants of investment in Latin America. The regressions use quadrennial panel data for the period 1970-1985 in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela. Together, these six countries account for 86 percent of the total GDP of the region. The decline in private investment shares in Latin America during the 1980s seems to result from the deterioration in the terms of trade, from the decline in growth (resulting from adjustment programs designed to reduce current account deficits), from a reduction in complementary public investment, from increased macroeconomic instability, and from a large stock of foreign debt. The real exchange rate and the real rate of depreciation have no significant role in the determination of private investment.
Vol.12, n.o4(48), 1992
   
A crise monetária no Brasil: migrando da âncora cambial para o regime flexível
Eliana Cardoso
The author begins by asking why Brazilian policymakers opted to target the exchange rate to stabilize inflation when this strategy had already failed in Mexico. The answer: it was no longer possible to accommodate the contry's high inflation rate through the pervasive use of price indexation and a competitive exchange rate policy. Under conditions of high inflation, the anchoring of the exchange rate within the Real Plan was the quickest route toward price stability. However, policy success also required deep fiscal adjustment, and traditional Brazilian politics stubbornly resisted the necessary tax reforms. In contrast to Mexico, where the peso crash was fueled by reckless private sector spending and borrowing, Brasil's January 1999 devaluation was triggered by chronically high fiscal deficits. Brazil's rapid recovery under a flexible currency regime suggests that the macroeconomic fundamentals are back on track; the challenge now lies in the crafting of a viable pro-reform political coalition that can cut through the numerous parochial interests that converged to provoke the 1999 devaluation.
Vol.21, n.o3(83), 2001
   
As convenções de desenvolvimento no governo Lula: um ensaio de economia política
Fabio Erber
Development conventions in Lula’s mandates: an essay on political economy. This article analyses the different development proposals put forward during the two Lula Presidential mandates. It is argued that such proposals are structured as “development conventions”, which involve different priorities and different solutions to the problem of structural transformation. Their analytical frame is also different as are the interest groups which uphold them. Therefore their epistemology must be placed in the political economy context. It is argued that, notwithstanding the weight gained by a “developmental” convention over the second mandate, a “stability” convention is still hegemonic and commands macroeconomic policies.
Vol.31, n.o1(121), 2011
   
Uma proposta de unificação monetária dos países do Mercosul
Fabio Giambiagi
This paper deals with the possible future strengthening of the economical integra-tion among the countries of Mercosul, similar to the European integration related to the Maastricht agreement. Some of the problems associated to the coordination of macroeconomic policies and the monetary unification are presented and the feasibil-ity of an agreement similar to Maastricht by the members of Mercosul is defended. Finally, a proposal of schedule — to be announced in 2002 and to occur in the year 2012 — o achieve a monetary integration among Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and eventually other countries is made.
Vol.17, n.o4(68), 1997
   
Será consistente a proposta de criação de uma união monetária no Mercosul?
Fernando Ferrari Filho e Luiz Fernando de Paula
This paper aims to discuss the proposal for monetary union in MERCOSUR in the light of the theory of Optimal Currency Area (OCA). It shows that there is no evidence that macroeconomic convergence can be reached in MERCOSUR, since the area only minimally achieved some basic criteria defined by the OCA literature.
Vol.22, n.o2(86), 2002
   
O plano real e a agricultura brasileira: perspectivas
Fernando Homem de Melo
This paper reviews the effects of Plano Real’s macroeconomic policies on agriculture and discusses the new perspectives open after the strong devaluation of our currency in January 1999. Brazilian agriculture was severely affected by the combination of high interest rates — overvalued exchange rate. In addition, it has had to face the problems of excessive reduction in import tariffs, of financed imports and of low economic growth rates in recent years. Some favorable changes in international trade offset, at least partially, the problem of currency overvaluation. Brazil has always been recognized as having a strong comparative advantage in agriculture. The devaluation which occurred, beginning in January 1999, opens better perspectives for the country to exploit its competitiveness in international markets.
Vol.19, n.o4(76), 1999
   
Controvérsias recentes sobre controles de capitais
Fernando J. C. de Carvalho e João Sicsú
The efficacy of capital controls has been the object of renewed interest, especially in the aftermath of the Asian crisis of 1997. In particular, the IMF, that had decided to push for capital account convertibility in 1997, went through a change of mind of sorts, substituting the concern with the right sequencing of liberalizing reforms for the attempt to obtain immediate liberalization in developing countries. In the paper, it is shown that the theoretical debate around capital controls is in fact the same debate concerning financial regulation in general, opposing the Efficient Market Hypothesis to imperfect market hypotheses. It is also shown that the most recent empirical studies on the effects of capital account liberalization (and thus on the effects of keeping capital controls in force) do not have shown significant positive results in terms of most macroeconomic target variables, such as employment, growth, price stability, etc. These lack of definite results seem to suggest that liberalization efforts are mostly premature, moved by ideologically-founded pro-free market views rather than by empirical evidence.
Vol.24, n.o2(94), 2004
   
A composição financeira do déficit público
Fernando Maida Dall'Acqua e Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira
An increase of the public deficit will have a bigger or smaller impact on aggregate demand de-pending on its real or financial origin. An increase in the interests paid by the public sector will have a different effect on the macroeconomic level of an increase in the purchases of goods and services. Starting from these hypothesis this paper criticizes the conventional theory about public deficit and presents an alternative model of macroeconomic analysis of the effects of the public deficit emphasizing its internal composition between interests and real expenditures.
Vol.7, n.o2(26), 1987
   
Método dinâmico da Escola de Estocolmo
Fernando Nogueira da Costa
Dynamic method of the Stockholm School. The development of the dynamic method is considered the biggest contribution of the Stockholm School. The objective of this review-article is to show as this method contributed for the Alternative Theory of Money. The influence received from Wicksell is argued. The Stockholm School anticipated the thought of Keynes, but advancing dynamic macroeconomic analysis. The restatement of Keynes´ ideas, under the dynamic method, is important post keynesian contribution.
Vol.30, n.o4(120), 2010
   
O investimento na economia camponesa: considerações teóricas
Francisco de Assis Costa
This paper presents a model based on Marx and Chayanov which explains investment by the peasant production unit. The paper presents the basis of Marx’s pessimistic view, and Chayanov’s approach to the peasants special propensity for investment. Based on this discussion an analytical model is formulated which considers the Chayanovian potential derived from a microeconomic perspective of the peasant, and the limits on peasant investment in a capitalist system derived from a marxian macroeconomic perspective on the specific characteristics of petty commodity production. Finally, the paper points to generalizations which center on the contradictions between real restrictions determined by macro variables and the subjective potential of the family production and consumption unit, the essential focus of the interpretation of the diverse forms of the relationship peasant/capitalism.
Vol.15, n.o1(57), 1995
   
As empresas francesas e o financiamento da industrialização do Brasil
Frédéric Mauro
This small article is part of a communication about French firms in Spanish America. This one is only about Brazil. On Brazil we had two opportunities to study the history of French investments in that country during the XIX th and XX th centuries. Here we are passing from a macroeconomic and global to a microeconomic and entrepreneurship point of view. The French position in Brazil since 1800 can be resumed in some words: a very weak demographic presence but a very strong cultural one and an economic one in between. Of that economic presence we did not study the commercial aspect but only the financial one. It looks convenient to remember to our public some typical features of this financial aspect before examining some types of French firms that engaged in the Brazilian economy.
Vol.19, n.o3(75), 1999
   
Do cruzado ao Collor: os planos de estabilização e a agricultura
Gervásio Castro de Rezende
This paper traces the macroeconomic roots of the current agricultural crisis. It shows that the increase in inflationary instability after 1986, and the policies adopted by the Go-vernment, since then, to fight hyperinflation, caused the terms of trade of agriculture to be-come much more unstable, at the same time that the Government pulled back the support they had been providing to agriculture; these adverse conditions ultimately caused the reduc-tion of activity levels in agriculture in 1989 and 1990. The paper concludes by pointing out the implications for the current stabilization strategy.
Vol.12, n.o2(46), 1992
   
Independência do Banco Central e coordenação de políticas: Vantagens e Desvantagens de Duas Estruturas para Estabilização
Helder Ferreira de Mendonça
Nowadays, the orthodox conventional wisdom believes that the adoption of an independent central bank improves the alignment of fiscal policy with monetary policy, and thus, increases the coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities. However, the idea of coordination cannot be reduced to this. This paper makes a brief analysis concerning the advantages and disadvantages that belong to the independence of the central bank proposition and coordination between monetary and fiscal policies. The findings denote that the coordination of policies is a better framework to achieve the several macroeconomic goals.
Vol.23, n.o1(89), 2003
   
Transparência do Banco Central: uma análise para o caso brasileiro
Helder Ferreira de Mendonça e Adriana Inhudes
Central Bank transparency: an analysis of the Brazilian case. Nowadays there is a tendency among central banks of increasing transparency in the conduction of the monetary policy. After the adoption of inflation targeting in Brazil there was an increase in the communication of the Central Bank of Brazil with the public. This paper makes a brief review of the recent theoretical and empirical literature concerning this subject. Furthermore, an analysis due to the transparency in the conduction of Brazilian monetary policy on important macroeconomic variables is made. The findings denote that an increase in transparency improves the behavior of several macroeconomic variables.
Vol.30, n.o1(117), 2010
   
Moeda única: teoria e reflexão para o caso do Mercosul
Helder Ferreira de Mendonça e Anabel da Silva
“Currency Union in Mercosul”. Nowadays, influenced by the European experience, several Brazilian economists have given special attention to the possibility of a currency union among the countries of Mercosul. This paper makes a brief analysis of the main theoretical aspects that represent the basis for the proposition of a currency area. Besides this, the paper shows two distinct views in the national literature concerning the hypothesis of the creation of a currency area for the Mercosul. The main conclusion of this article is that the proposal mentioned above is not feasible, because the costs of macroeconomic coordination are too high.
Vol.24, n.o1(93), 2004
   
Global booms and busts: How is Brazil's middle class faring?
Jan Peter Wogart
Brazil’s Post War economic history has been marked by inflationary booms and busts, which kept large parts of the population poor, as income distribution remained highly skewed, and most governments failed to put enough efforts and resources into education and health. That seems to have changed recently, as an increasing number of studies have shown considerable advances in the incomes of the lower and the middle classes. This essay examines those findings and puts them into a historical perspective, discussing earlier attempts and hopes of Brazilian policy makers to advance the welfare of the population. It concludes that while the last fifteen years have been remarkable for the country to achieve macroeconomic stability and while the increasing efforts of supporting the poor seemed to have been moving income distribution slowly towards a more equal level, there is still a long way to go. The 2008 world financial crisis also hit Brazil hard, but the recovery has been smoother and faster than in any OECD country. The impact of the current crisis may provide a good test as to the robustness of the previous trends to further the wellbeing of the poor and the middle class
Vol.30, n.o3(119), 2010
   
Os estados de reformas defasadas e a questão da desvalorização: a reação da Venezuela aos choques exógenos
Javier Corrales
Having just completed its second consecutive "lost decade", the Venezuela case confirms that there are no short cuts to sound political economic management in the era of high capital mobility and securitized capital flows. The maintenance of a muddling-through exchange rate strategy has triunphed, at least for the time being, and enabled an elite executive-level coalition to prevail in pursuing a less than optimal macroeconomic policy. The author argues that Venezuela has avoided a full-blown Mexican or Brazilian-style devaluation by virtue of the Central Bank's ability to effectively manage the exchange rate. However, this has been the only pocket of modernization, as policymakers throughout the rest of the state bureaucracy have rejected the kinds of market reforms that will be necessary to reverse the coutry's highly mediocre perormance. While high oil prices since 1999 have afforded politicians and policymakers the "luxury" of being a reform laggard, Venezuelan leaders seem determined to learn the hard way that international trends could again swing against them on a moment's notice.
Vol.21, n.o3(83), 2001
   
Conflito social e políticas populistas na america latina
Jeffrey Sachs
The central hypothesis of this paper is that high-income inequality in Latin America contributes to intense political pressures for macroeconomic policies to raise the incomes of lower income groups, which in turn contributes to bad policy choices and weak economic performance. The paper looks in detail at one common type of policy failure: the populist policy cycle. This particular type of Latin Ame-rican policymaking, characterized by overly expansionary macroeconomic policies which lead to high inflation and severe balance of payments crises, has been re-peated so often, and with such common characteristics, that it plainly reveals the linkages from social conflict to poor economic performance.
Vol.10, n.o1(37), 1990
   
O modelo de racionamento de crédito e a política monetária novo-keynesiana: uma análise crítica
Jennifer Hermann
The paper discusses and criticizes the credit rationing model (CRM) and its use to support the new-Keynesian approach to the monetary policy. After analyzing the working of the model in the different phases of the business cycle it is concluded that: (i) in the upward phase, demand rationing equilibrium — which is a condition for recommendation of counter-cyclical monetary policy in the CRM scope — is not plau-sible as a macroeconomic phenomenon, but only at microeconomic level; (ii) in the downward phase, although the demand rationing is a plausible equilibrium, it does not occur for the reason alleged by the CRM (the rigidity of the interest rate), neither it does act in favour of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. These con-clusions imply the rejection of the CRM as theoretical basis for monetary policy analy-sis, as well as of the new-Keynesian approach about this theme. Finally, it is argued that, at macroeconomic level, the unique theoretical contribution of the CRM is to justify “vertical” interventions of government in financial markets, through financ-ing policies to sectors or projects which risks are more difficult to estimate — nota-bly, in infra-structure, R&D and new-technology sectors.
Vol.20, n.o2(78), 2000
   
Rumos da liberalização financeira brasileira
João Sicsú
Routes of the Brazilian financial liberalization. This paper describes the most recent change in the rules of domestic exchange market and emphasizes/explores their consequences to Brazilian macroeconomic.
Vol.26, n.o3(103), 2006
   
Instabilidade capitalista e demanda efetiva
José Carlos de Souza Braga
As regards the controversy surrounding effective demand and the work of Michäl Kalecki, it must be understood that he not only formulated an adequate theory of economic cycles but, by revealing the limits of this theory, dealt with a more complex set of problems which are specific to the movement of capitalism: the question of the simultaneous determination of cycles and trends. To develop this theory entails reformulating the above concepts in order to grasp the antinomy of the trend in capitalism and its interactions with fluctuations and changing circumstances. This in turn requires a critique of the concept of economic time, or more precisely a clarification of capitalist temporality. It is also necessary to re-assess the theoretical status of the principle of effective demand, in relation to a theory of capital and of capitalist calculation, within a theory of instability; the temporalization of this principle, as effected in macroeconomic models is not sufficient for the comprehension of capitalist dynamics as a whole.
Vol.3, n.o3(11), 1983
   
A convergência entre evolucionisto e regulacionismo
José Eli da Veiga
The purpose of this paper is to compare the foundations of two theoretical lines that have frequently been used in political economy: the evolutionist and the re-gulationist. The basic premise is that these two lines are still closely linked to their respective parents: the works of Schumpeter and Marx. That is, both their similari-ties and their differences are more in their genetic codes than in their adaptations to the environment in which they developed: neoclassical microeconomics and Keynesian and Kaleckian macroeconomics.
Vol.20, n.o2(78), 2000
   
Macroeconomic constraints to growth of Brazilian economy
José Luis Oreiro

Vol.31, n.o5(125), 2011
   
A opção por soberanias compartidas na américa latina: o papel da economia brasileira
José Tavares de Araujo Jr.
The recent integration affords are been hampered by the inconsistency of macroecono-mic policies. In this paper an exercise of shared sovereignty is discussed. A special emphasis is given to exchange rate. The idea is to achieve macroeconomic stability.
Vol.12, n.o1(45), 1992
   
Resuming Growth in Latin America: short and long term policies
Julio Lopez G. e Fernando Cardim de Carvalho
The authors of this paper assert that the paralysis of the state generated by the crises of the 1970s and 1980s deprived the economies of the region of an important lever to resume and sustain growth. They thus maintain that to overcome stagnation it will be necessary to reconstruct the state’s capacity to implement pro-growth policies. Following Keynes’s and Kalecki’s ideas, but also classical development economists, the authors argue, first, that short-term macroeconomic policies, to reduce unemployment and to increase the degree of capacity utilization, should be used to promote the generation of profits to firms and to wake up entrepreneurs’ animal spirits. Short-term expansionary policies should be coupled with measures to improve competitiveness and avoid balance of payments problems. They also claim that alternatives to the liberal programme will fail unless a pro-growth strategy is adopted which includes both short- and long-term policies. They thus propose that long-term policies must complete the package, signaling: a) sustained increases of effective demand in the future; and b) investment priorities to ensure that capacities will be created in strategic sectors and branches of the economy.
Vol.28, n.o3(111), 2008
   
Financial markets, external shocks and policy responses: the case of Brazil 2001
Lauro Vieira de Faria
This paper evaluates the macroeconomic response of the Brazilian government in 2001 following the emergence of sharp negative events in both the external and internal sectors with particular focus on monetary and exchange rate policies. It points out that the kind of macroeconomic reaction depicted by the standard Mundell-Fleming model is of little practical importance in a small open economy engulfed in dollar denominated debts and experiencing a confidence crisis like Brazil’s. The Brazilian economy operates as if there were some sorts of ceilings for the exchange rate and for interest rates, in a clear departure from the assumptions embodied in the “pure” model. In this kind of environment another set of actions is required to fight a dangerous exchange rate overshooting and that is proven by the events of 2001. Whilst the actions taken by the monetary authorities proved successful at that moment the paper shows that they came with sizeable real and financial costs as collateral. Therefore, the paper argues in favour of another set of macroeconomic responses which should have been preferred if we were to avoid such costs.
Vol.23, n.o4(92), 2003
   
Brasil delivery: a política econômica do Governo Lula
Leda Maria Paulani
This paper discusses de economic policy of the new government from Brazil at the beginning of 2003. It argues that surprisingly the government from PT (The Works Party) has fallen into the perverse logic of “credibility”. This logic implies the death of macroeconomics and will impede the imperative retaking of growth. Furthermore it demonstrates that the arguments of government to justify this unconditional surrender to the orthodoxy economics make no sense because it is not possible to prove that the Brazilian economy was falling down a precipice at the beginning of the new administration. It also suggests that the spurious identification between responsible administration and liberal economic policy maybe pointed as one of the reasons of this astonishing result.
Vol.23, n.o4(92), 2003
   
A questão da estabilização nos anos 80: um enfoque institucional
Leda Maria Paulani
This paper deals with the relation between institutions and stabilization problems. Its purposes is to demonstrate that the consideration of the institutions may provide answers for questions that the conventional macroeconomic analysis have not been succeeding in. The main questions is: why, in Brazil, from the beginning of the eighties onward, the inflation rate does not fall to a civilized levels but does not go to a hyperinflationary process? The approach is that provided by the “New Institutional Economics” (NIE) and the tentative hypothesis is that the formal indexation — a allocative institution created by the military government — (PAEG, 1967) — would have displaced the constitutive and fundamental institution, i. e, the money, the official currency. As a result of this process — a different process within Latin America because of the official and legal sign of the Brazilian indexation —, the recurrent rise of prices would have transformed itself into an institution.
Vol.14, n.o1(53), 1994
   
Do tratado sobre probabilidade à teoria geral: o conceito de racionalidade em Keynes
Luis Catão
The purpose of this paper is to re-assess the role of uncertainty in Keynes’s macroeconom-ics by exploring the concepts of probability, rational belief and rational action, as they ap-pear in the Treatise on Probability. Three main claims are then made. First, there exist sub-stantial links between the conception of human rationality in the Treatise on Probability and that in the General Theory. Secondly, Keynes attributes considerable importance to the ration-al elements involved in the process of investment decision and suggests that they normally lead to macroeconomic stability. Instability is thus explained by a specific institutional shock to an economy, which is already prone to crises due to the imperfect working of certain key markets. From this perspective, the post-Keynesian literature is misleading in blaming uncer-tainty for capitalist instability and unemployment. Thirdly, following Keynes’s hints, I sug-gest that an institutionalist research programme would provide a firm basis to model invest-ment behaviour under uncertainty in a more realistic way than usually done.
Vol.12, n.o1(45), 1992
   
Desregulamentação dos mercados de trabalho e desemprego nas economias capitalistas avançadas
Luiz Antônio de Oliveira Lima
The aim of this research is to discuss the relevance of micro and macroeconomic factors as the determinants of the present level of unemployment in some advanced capitalist economies. Through these results it will be possible to determine the importance of the conventional hypothesis that high levels of unemployment can be explained by the rigidities in the labor market as well as its policy implications.
Vol.20, n.o4(80), 2000
   
Alguns aspectos críticos da "nova macroeconomia keynesiana"
Luiz Antonio de Oliveria Lima
This paper argues that the new “keynesian macroeconomics” presents some weak points by ignoring the long-run effects of aggregate demand on the working of the economic system. In order to introduce this reality, the paper shows that it is necessary to define the relationships between real wage and unemployment in a manner that sheds light on the crucial policies of employment and growth. This is done by introducing an investment function which makes possible to determine different long run paths for the economy according to the state of the “animal spirits” of the entrepreneurs.
Vol.14, n.o2(54), 1994
   
Structuralist macroeconomics and the new developmentalism
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira

This paper first presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics that complements and actualizes the ideas of the structuralist development economics that was dominant between the 1940s and the 1960s. A system of three models focusing on the exchange rate (the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate, a critique of growth with foreign savings, and new a model of the Dutch disease) shows that it is not just volatile but chronically overvalued, and for that reason it is not just a macroeconomic problem; as a long term disequilibrium, it is in the core of development economics. Second, it summarizes “new developmentalism” – a sum of growth policies based on these models and on the experience of fast-growing Asian countries. 


Vol.32, n.o3(128), 2012
   
The two forms of capitalism: developmentalism and economic liberalism
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira

 Este artigo argumenta que o Estado e o mercado são as principais instituições que regulam o capitalismo e, consequentemente, que a forma de organização econômica e política do capitalismo ou é desenvolvimentista ou é liberal. O artigo define Estado desenvolvimentista, o relaciona com a formação de uma coalizão de classe desenvolvimentista, e assinala que o capitalismo nasceu desenvolvimentista no mercantilismo, tornou-se liberal no século XIX e, depois de 1929, tornou-se novamente desenvolvimentista, mas agora democrático e social. Todas as revoluções industriais e capitalistas ocorreram no quadro do desenvolvimentismo, onde o Estado coordena o setor não competitivo da economia e os cinco preços macroeconômicos (que o mercado é incapaz de tornar “certos”), enquanto o mercado coordena o setor competitivo. Na década de 1970, uma crise abriu espaço para uma forma de capitalismo neoliberal ou financeiro-rentista. Desde a crise financeira global de 2008, a hegemonia neoliberal chegou ao fim e, a partir de então, estamos passando por um período de transição.

 This paper argues that the state and the market are the main institutions regulating capitalism, and, correspondingly, that the form of the economic and political coordination of capitalism will be either developmental or liberal. It defines the developmental state, relates it to the formation of a developmental class coalition, and notes that capitalism was born developmental in its mercantilist phase, turned liberal in the nineteenth century, and, after 1929, became once again developmental, but, now, democratic and progressive. All industrial and capitalist revolutions took place within the framework of developmentalism, whereby the state coordinates the non-competitive sector of the economy and the five macroeconomic prices (which the market is unable to make “right”), while the market coordinates the competitive sector. In the 1970s, a crisis opened the way for a short-lived and reactionary form of capitalism, neoliberalism or rentier-financier capitalism. Since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the neoliberal hegemony has come to an end, and we are now experiencing a period of transition.



Vol.37, n.o4(149), 2017
   
Economia conservadora e economia progressista
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira
From the assumption that Economics or Political Economy is a science ideologically conditio-ned, the author distinguishes a conservative from a progressist or liberal approach. This distinc-tion is made in three levels: 1) basic theory, more specifically value theory; 2) macroeconomic theory; 3) economic policy.
Vol.5, n.o4(20), 1985
   
O Segundo Consenso de Washington e a quase-estagnação da economia brasileira
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira
While in the social and ethical realms the Cardoso administration (1995-2002) was successful, its economic outcomes were frustrating. In these eight years the investment rate did not increase and income per capita growth lagged, while public and foreign debts increased substantially. This poor economic performance may be explained by three chained causes: a mistake in agenda setting, the adoption of the Second Washington Consensus, and the alienation of elites. The decision of setting high inflation as the major problem to be tackled instead of achieving equilibrium in foreign accounts represented a major macroeconomic mistake, which can be explained by the Second Washington Consensus. This consensus proposed in the 1990s that highly indebted countries should grow counting on foreign savings, although this is not the experience among OECD countries. The outcome was to evaluate the real, to increase artificially wages and consumption, so that instead of growth we have been increasing indebtedness. Why this flopped strategy was adopted? Rich countries’ interests are not difficult to guess. On the part of Brazil, the only explanation is Brazilian elites’ alienation in relation to the country’s national interest. As a final outcome, the Cardoso administration ends with another balance of payments crisis.
Vol.23, n.o3(91), 2003
   
Os dois métodos e o núcleo duro da teoria econômica
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira
The two methods and the hard core of economics. While methodological sciences have no object and are supposed to adopt a hypothetical-deductive method, substantive sciences including economics should use an empirical or historical-deductive method. The great classical economists and Keynes did that and were able to develop open models explaining how equally open economic systems work. Thus, the hard core of relevant economics is formed by the classical microeconomics and the classical theory of capitalist economic growth, and by Keynesian macroeconomics. In contrast, neoclassical economist aiming to build a mathematical science wrongly adopted the hypothetical-deductive method, and came to macroeconomic and growth models that do not have practical use in policymaking. The exception is Marshall’s microeconomics that does not provide a model of real economic systems, but is useful to the analysis of markets.
Vol.29, n.o2(114), 2009
   
Incompetência e confindence building por trás de 20 anos de quase estagnação da América Latina
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira
Latin America remained almost stagnant in per capita terms in the last twenty years. The original causes are well known: the interrelated debt crisis and the fiscal crisis of the state. But why Latin American countries took so long to recover macroeconomic stability? Not only because fiscal adjustment and market oriented reforms were checked by interest groups, but also because, even when policymakers were free from political constraints, they nevertheless often made serious policy mistakes – mistakes that derived from technical or emotional incompetence, and from a subordinate “confidence building” strategy, that implied doing everything they supposed international agencies and financial markets would expect in order to achieve credit and credibility, instead of using their own judgment to make decisions and design required reforms.
Vol.21, n.o1(81), 2001
   
Reflexões sobre o Novo Desenvolvimentismo e o Desenvolvimentismo Clássico
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira

 Este artigo, inicialmente, distingue, primeiramente, o Novo Desenvolvimentismo, um novo sistema teórico que está em criação, do desenvolvimentismo realmente existente, que foi responsável pelo desenvolvimento original de muitos países, mas muitas vezes é apenas uma forma de populismo fiscal ou keynesianismo vulgar. Segundo, o distingue o Desenvolvimentismo Clássico, que o precedeu. Terceiro, brevemente analisa o chamado “social-desenvolvimentismo” e nada vê ali que se aproxime de uma teoria. Finalmente, o artigo fornece um resumo do Novo Desenvolvimentismo – seus principais argumentos no campo da economia política, da teoria econômica e da política econômica.

 Reflecting on new developmentalism and classical developmentalism. This paper, first, distinguishes new developmentalism, a new theoretical system that is being created, from really existing developmentalism – a form of organizing capitalism. Second, it distinguishes new developmentalism from its antecedents, Development Economics or classical developmentalism and Keynesian Macroeconomics. Third, it discusses the false opposition that some economists have adopted between new developmentalism and social-developmentalism, which the author understands as a form of really existing developmentalism; as theory, it is just a version of classical developmentalism with a bias toward immediate consumption. Finally, it makes a summary of new developmentalism – of its main political economy, economic theory and economic policy claims.


Vol.36, n.o2(143), 2016
   
An account of new developmentalism and its structuralist macroeconomics
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira
This is a personal account of the identification and definition of “new developmentalism” – a national development strategy alternative to the Washington consensus –, and of a “structuralist development macroeconomics”: the sum of concepts and models that justifies theoretically that strategy. It is personal account of a collective work involving Keynesian, institutionalist and structuralist economists in Brazil. It is Keynesian because it emphasizes the demand side or the investment opportunities’ side of economic growth. It is structuralist because it defines economic development as a structural change from low to high value added per capita industries and because it is based on two structural tendencies that limit investment opportunities: the tendency of wages to grow below productivity and the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate.
Vol.31, n.o3(123), 2011
   
Uma escola de pensamento keynesiano-estruturalista no Brasil?
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira
A new Keynesian-struturalist school of thought is emerging in Brazil. It is formed by a Structuralist Development Macroeconomics that offers scientific explanation to New Developmentalism – a national development strategy. In this intervention the author delineates its main theoretical claims and policies.
Vol.31, n.o2(122), 2011
   
Macroeconomia estruturalista do desenvolvimento
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira e Paulo Gala
Structuralist development macroeconomics. This paper presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics (the tendencies to the overvaluation of the exchange rate and the tendency of wages to grow below productivity, the critique of growth with foreign savings, and a new model of the Dutch disease) that complement and actualize the thought of the Latin-American structuralist school that developed around ECLAC from the late 1940s to the 1960s. On the other hand, it suggests that a new national development strategy based on the experience of fast growing Asian countries is emerging; and argues that only the countries that adopt such strategy based on growth with domestic savings, fiscal and foreign trade responsibility and a competitive exchange rate will be able to catch up.
Vol.30, n.o4(120), 2010
   
A origem política dos problemas econômicos
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira e Yoshiaki Nakano
This paper presents S0 conveyed idea nowadays that the economic problems have a political origin, or that the economic problems have not been solved because of lack of political support. We show how the acceptation of these ideas is related to the appearance of the School of Public Choice, or School of National Choice — an analysis of a neoliberal character — and the called political macroeconomics. We discuss how these approaches lead to the proposition of adopting compensatory social policies which may guarantee the government legitimacy.
Vol.15, n.o2(58), 1995
   
Are we all Keynesians?
Marc Lavoie
This essay asks whether we are all becoming Keynesians again. It offers some thoughts about the impact of the financial crisis on macroeconomic theory and Keynesian theory, and on post-Keynesian theory in particular. It is argued that the crisis does have obvious effects on how Keynesianism is being perceived by decision makers, and that some effects are also observed on academia. However, there are forces within the economics profession and the population at large which are resistant to this second coming of the Keynesian revolution.
Vol.30, n.o2(118), 2010
   
O financiamento à infra-estrutura e a retomada do crescimento econômico sustentado
Márcio G.P.Garcia
Unlike previous growth cycles in Brazil, the new one that will complete the Real stabilization plan can no longer count on the state as the main financier and undertaker of the infrastructure investments. This represents a world trend, that originated the project finance, a way to finance heavy investments designed to make possible the private/public partnership. The project finance separates the firm risk from the business risk, and designs finance arrangements that are specific to each investment project. In Brazil, now that the law that regulates concessions to the private sector has been enacted and the privatization program has been accelerated, the project finance will probably constitute the main finance procedure for infrastructure investments. For the project finance to work, the regulatory environment should be clear and the contracts should be credible, preventing the public sector to be put into a comer, forced to bail out insolvent projects. A new proposal for the BNDES system — an insurance against the macroeconomic risk in credit operations —is laid out. This proposal aims at building a long term credit market in Brazil.
Vol.16, n.o3(63), 1996
   
Café, cacau e crescimento econômico no Brasil
Maria J. Willumsen e Amitava Krishna Dutt
This paper analyzes the impacts of increases in prices of two primary products — coffee and cocoa — on the growth of the national and regional economies. It tries to understand the factors that have determined salutary effects in the coffee region and negligible effects on the cocoa region. The results suggest that only a partial answer can be found in the nature of these products, as proposed by the “staples” approach. The largest effects seem to be connect-ed with some social and macroeconomic characteristics
Vol.11, n.o3(43), 1991
   
Política e reformas fiscais no Brasil recente
Maria Rita Loureiro e Fernando Luiz Abrucio
“Politics and Fiscal Reforms in Recent Brazil”. This study focuses on the economic and political framework in which fiscal changes take place in Brazil in the past two decades, in the general context of the State reform. Emphasis is given to the Cardoso government’s reforms which are examined not only from a macroeconomic perspective but also from the viewpoint of democratic accountability. Without disregarding the role of critical conjunctures, the article also stresses the incremental nature of these reforms and indicates that successful ones take place gradually and that each step taken has influence on the path ahead.
Vol.24, n.o1(93), 2004
   
Una visión argentina sobre la situación competitiva de la industria brasileña
Marta Bekerman
The work looks at the current situation of the Brazilian industrial sector as well as the strategies carried out to increase external competition. It also analyzes two specific industrial sectors: food and petrochemicals, and their position regarding the process of integration with Argentina. The large increase in the Brazilian external trade balance during the 1 980s was the result of some factors which seem difficult to sustain in the long run. On the other hand the implementation of the industrial policy established from 1990 has been very slow. However there is a clear disposition both in the private and public sector to carry out a process to improve competitiveness and to allow the survival of an industrial sector whose level of production is still higher than the Asian tigers altogether. But the success of an industrial strategy will depend on the resolution of the current political and macroeconomic problems.
Vol.15, n.o1(57), 1995
   
Política comercial e inserción internacional de la argentina para los años 90
Marta Bekerman y Pablo Sirlin
Taking into account the international context, the theoretical debate, and the lessons that could be extracted from successful countries, the article examines the trade policy basis that should be followed by Argentina to get a dynamic international insertion. It is pointed out that trade policy could be used as an instrument of both, macroeconomic and microeconomic gestion. Its employment as a suboptimal instrument could be justify when the optimal ones are restricted (for example the case of the exchange rate policy in Argentina). It is also emphasized that it is necessary to follow a dose coordination between trade and industrial and technological policies to get high levels of investment in the tradable sectors, an increase in competitivity based in higher levels of productivity, and an improvement in the perfil of specialization. Finally it is pointed out the importance of improving the autonomy and efficiency of the State to guarantee the effectiveness of the public interventions.
Vol.16, n.o3(63), 1996
   
O crash de 2002: da "Exuberância irracional" à "ganância infecciosa"
Maryse Farhi e Marcos Antonio Macedo Cintra
This paper is an attempt to discuss the macroeconomic repercussions from de-inflating a speculative bubble in stock markets and from an established low price trend. Revelations accrued this low price trend how comprise recommendations by financial analysts, corporation balance sheets, auditing companies and credit rating agencies make the asset pricing difficult, affect confidence by financial agents and contaminate their expectations. The crisis of confidence brought about by these revelations can potentially impact on economic growth of developed countries, beginning with the USA, raise risk aversion by investors and trigger reinforced regulation and supervision mechanisms in detriment to auto-regulating ones which had been prevailing up to the present moment.
Vol.23, n.o1(89), 2003
   
Estabilidade dinâmica e transformações dos regimes monetários internacionais
Michel Aglietta
In this paper the author discusses the dynamics of the international monetary regimes. In opposition to mainstream economics, these regimes are seen as irreversible historical insti-tutions characterized by a structural instability. They are defined by the degree of exchange rate rigidity, by the mobility of capitals, and by weight of internal objectives in the preference function of governments. Their dynamics is based on an irreversible sequence defined by the increasing degradation of macroeconomic adjustments, leading to the accumulation of ten-sions and to a structural instability, as the world economy changes, and finally to questioning the founding principles of the international monetary regime.
Vol.12, n.o2(46), 1992
   
Macroanálise, regulação e o método: uma alternativa ao holismo e ao individualismo metodológicos para uma macroeconomia histórica e institucionalista
Miguel Bruno
Macro-analysis, regulation and the method: an alternative to the methodological holism and individualism to a historical and institutionalist macro-economy. The paper examines the epistemological conditions that make the “regulationist” macro-analysis a possible alternative to the traditional equilibrium approaches. It shows how these analyses allow to overcome the structure-agent dilemma as from the concept of contextual rationality and of a hol-individualist methodology that, combined with the notion of strong historicity, find wide theoretical basis in Bourdieu's sociology, in Braudel's works on economical history and in Lukács's ontology on the social being. The paper also explains its historical origins and concludes with a synthesis of the method and the necessary steps to accomplish this type of macroeconomics approach.
Vol.25, n.o4(100), 2005
   
Protectionism and industrialization: a critical assessment of the Latin American industrialization period
Noemi Levy-Orlik
Protectionist policies were considered one of the pivotal features of the import industrialization process in Latin America. In this paper the effects of protectionist policies are assessed in terms of the principal macroeconomic variables, productive structure and external trade composition; also, ECLAC’s perspective on the import substitution process is discussed. The main conclusions are that regional protectionist policies were spontaneous, and their effects were limited due to the generalized protection that took place and the government’s commitment to price stability.
Vol.29, n.o4(116), 2009
   
A transformação da dívida externa em títulos de longo prazo
Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr.
This paper offers a discussion of the proposal of securitization of external debt in the context of Brazilian economy. After analyzing many questions involved, the paper presents a specific proposal of conversion of external debt into bonds with long-term maturity and fixed interest rate. This proposal should reduce the external transfer of real resources and decrease the outstanding of external debt and diminish the vulnerability of Brazilian economy to an increase in the interest rate as well. The paper presents also a simulation of Brazilian Balance of Payments and key macroeconomics variables for the period 1988/92 in order to evaluate the proposal.
Vol.8, n.o3(31), 1988
   
Salários: uma possível alternativa de compromisso
Paulo Renato Souza
This article deals with the political debate concerning the Brazilian wage legislation during the second semester of 1983. It explores the reasons behind proposals based in full price indexation but suggests that measures which maintain the level of real mean wages during periods of wage readjustment are a realistic first step in a policy aimed at real wage recuperation in a non recessionary environment. The article discusses some mechanisms of real average wage maintenance, including a sliding scale of readjustments not based on fixed adjustment periods. Complementary measures dealing with price controls and broader macroeconomic policies are discussed in closing.
Vol.4, n.o2(14), 1984
   
O mito do populismo econômico de Vargas
Pedro Cezar Dutra Fonseca
The myth of Vargas’ economic populism. The Second Vargas Administration in Brazil (1951-1954) is commonly associated with the phenomenon of populism. However, based on the models of economic populism, it is clear that the economic policy of the period is not the one shown by those models. Besides, based on this historic experience, it is advocated that there is no incompatibility between developmentalism and the adoption of macroeconomic stability-oriented measures.
Vol.31, n.o1(121), 2011
   
Uma crítica ao consenso de Washington
Pedro Malan
This was the intervention of the author at the closing Panel of a Conference in Honor of Albert Hirschman on Development Strategies for Latin America. It draws attention to some shortcomings of the so-called “Washington Consensus”, John Williamson’s apt expression to describe the view that better policies lead to better results, worse policies to worse results. This is true but trite, trivial and tautological. The author suggests that there are three types of policies to be addressed: the first is related to the quest for macroeconomic stability; the second to much-needed microeconomic reforms; the third is the missing link in the Washington Consensus and has to do with the resumption of growth and investment with technological change in an increasingly competitive world economy. This requires, in addition to macro-stability and micro-reforms, some visions of the future and a much more effective pattern of interactions between the private/sector and a modernized and active public sector, given the in-terdependence of investment çlecisions in the presence of economy-wide externalities.
Vol.11, n.o3(43), 1991
   
Desigualdade e acumulação de capital no capitalismo periférico
Raúl Prebisch
The paper argues that in developing countries the changing political and social relations so as the technical progress create a systematic tendency for a dynamic disequilibrium between con-sumption and investment. Under these conditions, the continued growth requires a macroeconomic policy directed to increase the rate of accumulation through a reduction in the aggregate consump-tion of both capitalist and working classes. Politically this kind of regulatory policy should be seen as an opportunity for the working class to increase its share in the wealth ownership.
Vol.7, n.o1(25), 1987
   
Distribuição de renda no Brasil: avaliação das tendências de longo prazo e mundanças na desigualdade desde meados dos anos 70
Régis Bonelli e Lauro Ramos
The paper analyses the Brazilian size distribution of income with the objective of identifying to what extent economic policies, macroeconomic performance and changes in the structure of the labor force are related to inequality. There is evidence of long term increases in inequality, especially between 1960 and 1970. Long term trends do not seem to be affected by economic performance, although the stagnation of the 1980s has led to absolute income losses for all individuals except those in the top percentile. Short term behavior, on the other hand, seems to have been influenced by economic performance: there is evidence that growth enhances equity, whereas high inflation has the opposite effect. A decomposition analysis highlights the importance of education in explaining inequality, but points to changes in the structure of the labor force as the major factor in accounting for changes in inequality since the mid-1970s.
Vol.13, n.o2(50), 1993
   
Chile, entre el neoliberalismo y el crecimiento com equidad: una sitesis
Ricardo Ffrench-Davis
During Pinochet’s dictatorship deep reforms were implemented in Chile. Certainly, many of them constituted permanent achievements for development strategies in democracy. However, economic growth between 1973 and 1989 was mediocre (averaging only 2.9% annually) and income distribution deteriorated notably. This was related to the fact that the reforms suffered from various flaws that had severe repercussions on the growth of potential GDP and on social welfare. In the 1990s, the governments of the Concertación launched several reforms to the reforms with the goal of injecting “pragmatism”. It focused on decreasing macroeconomic vulnerability when faced with an increasingly volatile external environment and on completing underdeveloped domestic markets. The result of the set of reforms to the reforms was that, during the entire decade, there was an unprecedented vigorous expansion of productive capacity (which averaged 7% per year), along with a significant reduction in poverty (from 45% to 21% of population). A recessive gap in 1999-2001, however, highlighted failures, increasing contradictions and the lack of greater reforms to the reforms.
Vol.22, n.o4(88), 2002
   
Argentina: a decade of the convertibility program
Roberto Frenkel
The article is an assessment of the Convertibility period in Argentina, which covers the nineties. It is presented in two sections. In the first section the macroeconomic performance is described and evaluated, together with the effects on employment, unemployment and income distribution. An important contraction in full employment and significant increments in unemployment and involuntary underemployment are stressed. As from the mid-nineties the income distribution shows a strong worsening trend and the poverty and indigence indicators tend to rise. The increment in unemployment stands as the main explanatory factor of the worsening of social conditions. In the second section different aspects of the Convertibility Regime are discussed: the appreciated exchange rate, the dollarization of the financial system, the accentuated dependency on capital flows, the external sustainability and the regime durability.
Vol.22, n.o4(88), 2002
   
Reforma financeira - aspectos gerais e análise do projeto de lei complementar
Rubens Penha Cysne
The Brazilian Constitution enacted in 1988 demands a complementary law to regulate the financial system in Brazil. This paper analyses the existing official project focusing on macroeconomic stabilization and independence of thc Central Bank.
Vol.13, n.o3(51), 1993
   
The theory of endogenous money and the LM schedule: prelude to a reconstruction of ISLM
Thomas I. Palley

A moeda está no centro da macroeconomia e a oferta de moeda é portanto central para a teoria macroeconômica. Este trabalho apresenta a teoria pós-keynesiana da oferta de moeda endógena e mostra como ela é fundamentalmente diferente da teoria da oferta de moeda convencional. A abordagem convencional se baseia no multiplicador da moeda, e o crédito bancário permanece invisível. O artigo enfatiza a versão estruturalista da teoria pós-keynesiana que mantém a teoria de Keynes da preferência pela liquidez das taxas de juro de longo prazo e também reconhece que os bancos estão sujeitos a restrições financeiras que limitam suas atividades de empréstimo. O documento, em seguida, mostra como derivar o cronograma LM em uma economia monetária endógena, que é um prelúdio necessário para reconstruir o modelo ISLM.

Money is at the center of macroeconomics, which makes understanding the money supply central for macroeconomic theory. This paper presents the Post Keynesian theory of endogenous money supply and shows how it is fundamentally different from the conventional money supply theory. The conventional approach relies on the money multiplier and bank lending is invisible. Post Keynesian theory discards the money multiplier and focuses on bank lending which drives money creation. The paper emphasizes the structuralist version of Post Keynesian theory which retains Keynes’ liquidity preference theory of long term interest rates and also recognizes banks are subject to financial constraints that limit their lending activities. The paper then shows how to derive the LM schedule in an endogenous money economy, which is a necessary prelude to reconstructing the ISLM model.


Vol.37, n.o1(146), 2017
   
Rethinking the economics of capital mobility and capital controls
Thomas I. Palley
This paper reexamines the issue of international financial capital mobility, which is today’s economic orthodoxy. Discussion is often framed in terms of the impossible trinity. That framing distorts discussion by representing capital mobility as having equal significance with sovereign monetary policy and control over exchange rates. It also distorts discussion by ignoring possibilities for coordinated monetary policy and exchange rates, and for managed capital flows. The case for capital mobility rests on neo-classical economic efficiency arguments and neo-liberal political arguments. The case against capital mobility is based on Keynesian macroeconomic inefficiency arguments, neo-Walrasian market failure arguments, and neo-Marxian arguments regarding distortion of the social structure of accumulation. Close examination shows the case for capital mobility to be extremely flimsy, pointing to the ideological dimension behind today’s policy orthodoxy.
Vol.29, n.o3(115), 2009
   
A quebra do peso mexicano: causas, conseqüências e recuperação
Timothy Kessler
This article traces the ways in which political, economic, domestic, and international factors converged to provoke a massive financial crisis in Mexico in 1994/5, as well as the consequences of this crisis for future reform efforts. The author argues that the maintenance of an overvalued exchange rate prior to the crisis enabled the ruling PRI party to appeal to a broad range of domestic interests. International investors, who held an unprecedented $34 billion in Mexican equities in 1994, were equally adamant in defending the anchored exchange rate. However, in attempting to appease both domestic and foreign interests, the Salinas administration lost control of the macroeconomic fundamentals. While the combination of a massive multilateral loan and the shift to a floating exchange rate paved the way for Mexico's rapid economic recovery, a main legacy of the crisis was the political demise of the PRI. Although political liberalization was certainly not part of the PRI's original game plan, thanks to its own reckless policy errors, a main legacy of the peso crisis was the advent of more open politics in Mexico. Because of this, the politics of economic policymaking under the new Fox administration may not be as neatly packaged as under the PRI, but there are already unprecedented signs of debate, accountability, and compromise.
Vol.21, n.o3(83), 2001
   
Regimes e políticas cambiais: uma visão geral
W. Max Corden
This article lays out the general economic principles of exchange rate policy and provides an overview of the four country cases that have been included in this special edition of the journal: Mexico, Brasil, Argentina, and Venezuela. Three main currency regimes are discussed - the fixed but adjustable regime (FBAR), the firmly fixed rate, and the floating rate regime. At the same time, the article distinguishes between two main approaches to exchange rate policy: the nominal anchor approach and the real targets approach. The author identifies the costs and benefits of implementing these various exchange rate regimes through the different phases of macroeconomic stabilization and structural adjustment. Although dollarization has become increasingly discussed as another monetary policy option in Latin America, the author notes that this trend is still too incipient to adress at any length in this article.
Vol.21, n.o3(83), 2001
   
Política industrial e desenvolvimento
Wilson Suzigan e João Furtado
Industrial Policy and Development. This paper aims at contributing to the debate on industrial policy and economic development in Brazil. At first, theoretical approaches that support industrial policy- making are discussed, with emphasis on the neoschumpeterian/evolutionary approach, which focuses on innovation as prime mover of economic development and on the co-evolution of technologies, institutions, and industries and firms structures. Next, such an approach is applied to explain some successful experiences of industrial policy-making and economic development in Brazil up to the end of the 1970s, and the failures to implement such a policy from the 1980s onwards. Finally, the present government industrial policy is evaluated, arguing that although it has some positive aspects like the focus on innovation, clearly defined targets and a new institutional organization, it fails as an economic development policy because of weaknesses such as incompatibility with macroeconomic policy, inconsistencies of policy instruments, deficiencies in infrastructure and in the science, technology and innovation system, and lack of coordination and political drive.
Vol.26, n.o2(102), 2006
   
Da economia política à política econômica: o novo-desenvolvimentismo e o governo Lula
Lecio Morais e Alfredo Saad-Filho

From political economy to economic policy: The neo-developmentalism and the Lula administration. This article critically reviews the design of neo-developmentalist economic policies in Brazil, in the first half of the last decade, and their relationship with the economic policies of the Lula administration after 2006. Paradoxically, the neo-developmentalist policies were implemented jointly with the main (neoliberal) macroeconomic policies which had been introduced earlier. The article reviews the relevant literature, and examines the contradictory nature of this ‘inflection’ of economic policy. So far, this combination of policies has achieved an unquestionable – though provisional – success, despite the persistence of the structural macroeconomic problems due to the continuity of the neoliberal policies.


 


Vol.31, n.o4(124), 2011
   
A regional arrangement proposal for the UNASUR
Fernando Ferrari Filho

The article analyses the current process of economic integration in South America. Thus, concentrating our attention on the UNASUR regional integration process, two questions arise: First, is UNASUR the most viable institution to achieve a consistent economic integration process in South America? Second, what model of economic integration should be adopted in the case of UNASUR, which would ensure macroeconomic stability and avoid financial and exchange rate crises in the South America? To answer these questions, the article proposes, based on the Keynes (1944/1980)’s revolutionary analysis presented in his International Clearing Union, during the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, a regional arrangement to UNASUR. 


Vol.34, n.o3(136), 2014
   
Neutralizing tendency of wages to grow below productivity rate
Pierre Salama

The apparent stability on relative shares in revenue during the 2000s, or even the increase increase in wages share in Latin American countries, seems to be a "surprise" in Kaldor’s opinion, or even a "mystery" for Schumpeter, or well finally "a reproach to economic theory" according to Robinson. Various theories trying to explain sharing of value added insist on investment relative size, saving importance, different types of technical progress (biased or not), amount of idle capacity, cost structure, intermediate products importance, higher markup rates searching by entrepreneurs and, consecutively, on distributive conflict. We will analyze main macroeconomic models - those of Kaldor, Robinson and Kalecki – in order to overtake that "reproach to economic theory". 


Vol.32, n.o2(127), 2012
   
Fiscal policy and private investment. Latin America in a comparative perspective
Emilio Caballero U. e Julio López G.

The main objective of the paper is to assess the impact of fiscal variables on private investment comparing some Latin American economies to other advanced ones. For such purposes, the authors carry out an econometric analysis for the period 1990-2008. They make use of two dynamic panel models in which they group countries with similar characteristics and development levels. In one of them, they include Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay; whereas in the second one the countries accounted for are the U.S., Canada, Spain, Korea, Ireland and Japan. They specify in both models an investment function using as arguments a wide range of variables, including those related with fiscal policy. From their results the authors infer that governments can, with higher spending, boost up the economy even when they finance spending with higher taxes. In Latin America, where income concentration is enormous, a proposal to boost up the economy through higher government expenditure financed with a progressive income tax, is even more justified. 


Vol.32, n.o2(127), 2012
   
Reciprocidade implícita e crescimento na economia internacional: Uma perspectiva estruturalista
Mario Cimoli, Gabriel Porcile e Guilherme Souza e Silva

Implicit reciprocity and growth in the international economy: a structuralist perspective. This paper discusses some of the structuralist ideas about international coordination and growth in an international system formed by countries whose productive structures and technological capabilities are strongly asymmetric. These ideas are formalized taking as a point of departure the Keynesian Balance-of-Payments constrained growth model with two countries. To this model is added a function (based on the catching up literature) in which the income elasticity of the demand for exports and imports depends on the technology gap. The model allows for discussing the inter-relations between the fiscal and the industrial and technological policies. It also allows for finding the rate of growth of autonomous expenditure in the periphery which ensures that it will use all the foreign exchange it earns in promoting economic growth (the principle of “automatic reciprocity”).  


Vol.32, n.o2(127), 2012
   
Teoria das finanças funcionais e o papel da política fiscal: uma crítica pós-keynesiana ao novo consenso macroeconômico
Gabriel Caldas Montes e Rômulo do Couto Alves

Theory of functional finance and the role of fiscal policy: A post-keynesian critique to the new consensus macroeconomics. This paper presents the critical approaches and elaborates the arguments that oppose those of the New Consensus Macroeconomics regarding the conduct of fiscal policy. Those criticisms and arguments are based in the Post-Keynesian thought and the theory of Functional Finance. The theory of Functional Finance is an extension of the Keynesian approach, particularly with regard to discussions on public finances. As supports the theory of Functional Finance, the objectives to be pursued by fiscal policy should suggest the improvement of social welfare as a whole, i.e., the performance of inflation, employment and output should be taken into account by policymakers. 


Vol.32, n.o4(129), 2012
   
Gênese e agenda do novo desenvolvimento brasileiro
Lauro Mattei

Origin and agenda of Brazilian new developmentalism. The debate regarding Brazil’s development model returned again to the public arena in the first decade of 21st Century after two decades of orthodox economic policies which encouraged non-developed countries to adopt liberal economic policies as their preferred growth strategies. As Brazil achieved neither economic stability nor development, the discussion of new development strategies returned as a popular research topic. It is in this context that a new development theory – Neo Developmentalism – emerges. The objective of this article is to review the origins of this debate and the main propositions defended by the group aiming to implement a new development model policy in the country. The main conclusions are that this group has had an important contribution in maintaining the development debate in the public agenda as well as proposing a new theoretical approach called “structuralist macroeconomic development”. 


Vol.33, n.o1(130), 2013
   
Liberal versus neo-developmental convention to growth: why has Brazil shown a poor performance since the 1980s?
André Nassif e Carmen Feijó

The main goal of our paper is to provide analytical arguments to explain why Brazil has not been able to restore its long-term capacity for economic growth, especially compared with its economy in the 1950-1979 period (7.3 per cent per year on average) or even with a number of emerging economies in the 1980-2010 period (6.7 per cent per year on average, against 2.3 per cent per year on average in Brazil in the same period). We build our idea of convention to growth based on the Keynesian concept of convention. For our purposes, this concept could be briefly summarized as the way in which the set of public and private economic decisions related to different objectives, such as how much to produce and invest, how much to charge for products and services, how to finance public and private debt, how to finance research and development, and so on, are indefinitely – or at least until there is no change – carried out by the political, economic and social institutions. This analytical reference can be connected to the Neo-Schumpeterian National Innovation System (NIS) concept, which emphasizes not only institutions associated with science and technology per se, but also the complex interaction among them and other institutions. In this paper we identify two conventions to long-term growth in the last three decades in Brazil: the liberal and the neo-developmental. We show that the poor performance in the Brazilian economy in terms of real GDP growth from the 1980s on can be explained by a weak coordination between short-term macroeconomic policies and long-term industrial and technological policies. This weak coordination, in turn, can be associated with the prevalence of the liberal convention from the 1990s on, which has emphasized price stabilization to the detriment of a neo-developmental strategy whose primary goal is to sustain higher rates of growth and full employment in Brazil.
 


Vol.33, n.o4(133), 2013
   
Interesses financeiros e captura do Estado no Brasil
Marcus Ianoni

 O trabalho explora a avaliação de Bresser-Pereira (2007) de que a política macroeconômica brasileira exprime a captura do Estado por uma coalizão de interesses rentistas e financistas, que também influencia a regulação financeira. Para tanto, analisa duas agências de relacionamento com investidores, do Banco Central e do Tesouro Nacional, e uma agência de promoção de investimentos formada por reguladores e regulados. Argumenta que essas agências estreitam a comunicação e canais de formulação de políticas entre reguladores e regulados; atestam a influência das instituições financeiras nas decisões de políticas públicas; e corporificam convergência de interesses entre investidores financeiros e Estado. Conclui avaliando que a tesa da captura da política macroeconômica é plausível e deve ser pesquisada de modo sistêmico.

 The work explores the evaluation of Bresser-Pereira (2007) of which the Brazilian macroeconomic policy expresses the capture of the State by a coalition of rentiers and financiers interests, which also influences financial regulation. To this end, analyzes two investor relations agencies, of the Central Bank and of the National Treasury, and an investment promotion agency formed by regulators and regulated. Argues that these agencies strengthen communication and policymaking channels between regulators and regulated; attest to the influence of financial institutions on public policy decisions; and carry convergence of interests among financial investors and State. Concludes by assessing the thesis of macroeconomic policy capture is feasible and should be researched in a systemic way.


Vol.37, n.o2(147), 2017
   
O novo desenvolvimentismo: uma contribuição institucionalista
Herton Castiglioni Lopes

 O trabalho objetiva analisar o novo desenvolvimentismo a partir da Teoria da Regulação (T.R.), do institucionalismo derivado de Veblen e da teoria evolucionária neoschumpeteriana. Demonstra que o novo desenvolvimentismo é uma instituição ao estabelecer uma regulação (formas institucionais) que considere as características estruturais dos países em desenvolvimento. Essa configuração macroeconômica, em conjunto com os hábitos mentais dos agentes, deve fortalecer as relações de mercado, os investimentos produtivos, a inovação e o progresso técnico. Este último deve acontecer a partir das oportunidades abertas pelas revoluções tecnológicas, permitindo o catching up das nações menos desenvolvidas (de renda média).

 The objective of this work is analyzing the New Developmentalism throughout the French Regulation School, Veblen’s institutionalism and the Neo-Schumpeterian Approach. It aims to demonstrate, also, that the New Developmentalism is an institution when it establishes a regulation (institutional forms) that considers the structural characteristics of the developing countries. This macroeconomic configuration, together with the mental habits of the agents should strengthen the market relation, the productive investment, the innovation and the technical progress. This last one should happen through open opportunities in technological revolution, to let the ‘catching up’ of the nation less developed.


Vol.36, n.o4(145), 2016
   
Effects of overvaluation and exchange rate volatility over industrial investment
José Luís Oreiro, Flavio A. C. Basilio e Gustavo J. G. Souza

The present article aims to analyze the recent behavior of real exchange rate in Brazil and its effects over investment per worker in Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. Preliminary estimates presented in the article shows an over-valuation of 48% of real exchange rate in Brazil. The reaction between the level (and volatility) of real exchange rate and investment (per worker) in Brazil is analyzed by means of a panel data econometric model for 30 sectors of Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. The empirical results show that the level and volatility of real exchange rate has a strong effect over investment per worker in Brazilian industry. Finally, we conclude the article presenting a proposal for a new macroeconomic regime that aims to produce an acceleration of economic growth of Brazilian economy and, by that, a catching-up process with developed countries. 


Vol.34, n.o3(136), 2014
   
Institutions, credibility and crisis: the inconsistencies of Argentine exchange rate policy (1991-2006)
Nicolás Cherny

 The purpose of this article is twofold. The first is to explain the time inconsistencies of the convertibility regime that led to the 2001 crisis. The argument suggests that the credibility requirements for convertibility induced a dynamic of legal, fiscal, financial and external commitments that increased exit costs and time inconsistencies. The second objective is to explain the tensions of the floating regime that replaced convertibility in 2002. We describe the effects of a floating exchange rate on macroeconomic imbalance and the growing tension between competitiveness and inflation.


Vol.35, n.o1(138), 2015
   
The structuralist tradition in economics: methodological and macroeconomics aspects
Fabricio Missio, Frederico Gonçalves Jayme Jr. e José Luis Oreiro

 This paper examines the structuralist tradition in economics, emphasizing the role that structures play in the economic growth of developing countries. Since the subject at hand is evidently too large to cover in a single article, an emphasis has been brought to bear upon the macroeconomic elements of such a tradition, while also exploring its methodological aspects. It begins by analysing some general aspects of structuralism in economics (its evolution and origins) associated with ECLAC thought, in this instance focusing on the dynamics of the center-periphery relationship. Thereafter, the macroeconomic structuralism derived from the works of Taylor (1983, 1991) is presented, followed by a presentation of neo-structuralism. Centred on the concept of systemic competitiveness, this approach defines a strategy to achieve the high road of globalization, understood here as an inevitable process in spite of its engagement being dependent on the policies adopted. The conclusions show the genuine contributions of this tradition to economic theory.


Vol.35, n.o2(139), 2015
   
O Desafio Macroeconômico de 2015-18
Nelson Barbosa Filho

The macroeconomic challenge for 2015-2018. This paper presents a macroeconomic outllok of Brazil at the end of 2014 and an analysis of the main challenges to its macroeconomic policy in the subsequent years. On one side, the analysis is focused on the relationship between interest rates, growth and the real exchange rate. On the other, the paper also analyzes the multiples aspects and problems of fiscal policy in Brazil.


Vol.35, n.o3(140), 2015
   
Preços administrados e discricionariedade do executivo
Paulo Furquim de Azevedo e Felipe C. Serigati

Administered Prices and Government Discretion. Administered prices during the first term of President Dilma were used as an instrument to meet inflation target, so as to subordinate industrial policies to short run macroeconomic aims. This strategy was ineffective to control inflation and distorted investment and consumption decisions. The article shows that prices tend to deviate more the larger their weight in the price index, and tend to vary consistently with the political cycles. The article concludes with policy suggestions to control the negative effect of deviations of government discretion to determine administered prices.


Vol.35, n.o3(140), 2015
   
The Swedish model: an alternative to macroeconomic policy
Alexandre Guedes Viana e Patrícia Helena F. Cunha

 O modelo sueco: uma alternativa para a política macroeconômica. O artigo apresenta as principais características do modelo econômico sueco, o qual começou a ser gestado na década de 1930 e se consolidou a partir de meados da década de 1950. O Modelo Sueco caracteriza-se por uma política macroeconômica que proporciona estabilidade de preços e espaço fiscal para políticas industriais seletivas e políticas sociais ativas, esta última reconhecida como um amplo e universal Estado do Bem-Estar Social. Esta combinação, que contradiz o receituário econômico convencional, se mostrou exitosa, dado que o país era subdesenvolvido e agrário até o início do século XX e alcançou elevado grau de desenvolvimento socioeconômico desde a década de 1970. Em seguida, expomos a experiência Sueca como uma alternativa à condução da política macroeconômica dada a sua singularidade.

 This paper describes the main details of the Swedish economic model, which began to be structured on the 1930’s and achieved its consolidation on the 1950’s. The Swedish Model is characterized by a macroeconomic policy which provides price stability, fiscal results for ive industrial policies and social active policies, the latter being recognized as a wide universal welfare state. This combination, which contradicts the traditional economic prescriptions, has been successful given the country was agrarian and underdeveloped until the beginning of 20th century and achieved a high social-economic development level on the 1970’s. Afterwards, we present the Swedish experiment as an alternative to macroeconomic management, especially due to its uniqueness.


Vol.36, n.o2(143), 2016
   
A inércia estrutural da base produtiva brasileira: o IDE e a transferência internacional de tecnologia
Tulio Chiarini

 O que pode explicar o fato de ter havido uma entrada maciça de IDE no Brasil e ter-se mantido uma inercial estrutural na base produtiva nacional? Existe uma serie de fatos macroeconômicos que podem ajudar a explicar essa inércia, como a baixa taxa de investimento e a falta de ordenação dos preços-chave da economia (como taxas de juros e taxa de câmbio), mas a proposição aqui feita é que existe um problema microeconômico estrutural relevante: falta de aptidão tecnológica das empresas industriais brasileiras. Para analisar tal proposição parte-se da separação entre os tipos de IDE (greenfield, fusão e aquisição e ‘em carteira’) e os tipos de canais de transferência de tecnologia (horizontal e vertical). A partir de elementos empíricos e históricos constrói-se o argumento de que a falta de aptidão tecnológica é elemento chave no entendimento da perda de dinamismo da indústria nacional.

 The structural inertia in the national productive base. What can explain the fact that there was a massive entry of FDI in Brazil and it remains with a structural inertia in the national productive base? There is a series of macroeconomic facts that can help explain this inertia, such as low investment rate and the mismatching of key prices in the economy (such as interest rates and exchange rates), but the proposal made here is that there is a relevant microeconomic structural problem: lack of technological capability of Brazilian industrial firms. To analyze this proposition we separate the types of FDI (greenfield, merger and acquisition and portfolio) and the types of technology transfer channels (horizontal and vertical). From empirical and historical elements we build up the argument that the lack of technological capability is a key element in understanding the dynamism loss of the domestic industry.


Vol.36, n.o2(143), 2016
   
A reconstrução da indústria brasileira: a conexão entre o regime macroeconômico e a política industrial
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, André Nassif e Carmem Feijó

 Este artigo, de cunho eminentemente analítico, mostra que no âmbito da política macroeconômica, é necessária consistência entre as políticas monetária, fiscal, cambial e salarial para viabilizar taxas de juros reais médias inferiores às taxas de retorno médias sobre o capital, taxas de câmbio reais competitivas (em torno da taxa de “equilíbrio industrial”) e taxas de salários que evoluam de acordo com o crescimento da produtividade, condições para que se assegure o crescimento econômico sobre bases sustentáveis. Já com respeito à política industrial, é preciso perseguir estratégias de diversificação produtiva, notadamente no setor manufatureiro e nos segmentos tradable do setor de serviços, mediante a identificação de prioridades estratégicas tanto nas cadeias produtivas, segmentos e setores próximos à base de vantagem comparativa preexistente, como naqueles mais próximos à fronteira tecnológica internacional. Embora os argumentos analíticos favoreçam a estratégia de diversificação produtiva, esta não deve ser confundida com semi-autarquia, o que significa que as cadeias e setores que não sejam foco da política industrial devem ter alíquotas de importação zero ou próximas de zero.

 This paper is predominantly analytical. Concerning the macroeconomic regime, we propose more consistency between monetary, fiscal, exchange rate and wage policies. Such consistency is to provide sustainable long-term economic growth with structural change. Also, it is to make it feasible to not only maintain average real interest rates below the average real return rates on capital, but also competitive real exchange rates (i.e. marginal undervalued real exchange rates) and real wages that increase in step with productivity growth. This will help guarantee sustainable economic growth. As for industrial policy, theoretical and empirical evidence suggests the need to pursue strategies that diversify production, especially within the manufacturing sector as well as within tradable segments of the service sector. Although theoretical arguments are favorable to strategies that diversify production in countries that did not manage to catch up with developed countries, such strategies should avoid semi-autarky policies, which means that production chains, segments and sectors that are not the focus of industrial policy should have zero import tariffs, or close to zero.


Vol.36, n.o3(144), 2016
   
Fundamentos macroeconômicos nas perspectivas de Marx e Keynes: contribuições para a heterodoxia
Pedro Garrido da Costa Lima, Adriana Moreira Amado e Maria de Lourdes Rollemberg Mollo

 A necessidade de definir fundamentos microeconômicos para os modelos macroeconômicos, presente no pensamento dominante na economia contemporânea, pode ser questionada com base em diferentes abordagens teóricas. Posições como as de Marx e Keynes permitem a apreensão das ações dos agentes econômicos (grupos ou classes) como influenciadas e limitadas pelo ambiente social e macroeconômico, fornecendo visões de fundamentos macroeconômicos da microeconomia, ao invés da visão ortodoxa de fundamentos micro da macroeconomia. Essa forma de apreensão lança luz sobre diferenças de perspectivas da heterodoxia quando se trata de intervir sobre o contexto macroeconômico.

 The need to define microeconomic foundations for macroeconomic models, which is present in the mainstream thinking in contemporary economics, can be questioned on the basis of different theoretical approaches. Positions like those of Marx and Keynes permit the comprehension of the actions of economic agents (groups or classes) as influenced and limited by the social and macroeconomic environment, providing views of macroeconomic foundations of microeconomics, instead of the orthodox view of micro foundations of macroeconomics. This comprehensionsed slight on distinct perspectives in heterodox thought regarding the intervention in the macroeconomic context.


Vol.36, n.o3(144), 2016
   
A taxa de câmbio como instrumento do desenvolvimento econômico
Lauro Mattei e Thaís Scaramuzzi

 O artigo discute a importância da taxa de câmbio no processo de desenvolvimento econômico. Após fazer uma breve discussão do tema, apresenta-se um histórico sobre a política cambial brasileira após 1995 no âmbito do programa de estabilização macroeconômica. Neste caso, discutem-se os efeitos da política cambial sobre a indústria do país realçando-se o fato de que existem evidências empíricas que apontam para a desindustrialização. Este aspecto, em grande medida, é explicado pelo comportamento dos dados sobre a intensidade tecnológica dos produtos exportados e importados. Recentemente, observou-se uma expansão bastante expressiva dos produtos não industriais na pauta do comércio externo do país, indicador que pode estar sinalizando a existência de um processo de desindustrialização em curso.

 This article discusses the importance of the exchange rate in the economic development process. After a brief discussion about this issue, the paper presents a historical vision of the exchange policy adopted in Brazil from 1995 until now. This policy took part in the stabilization macroeconomic program implemented in the country since then. Thus, we are discussing the main effects of the economic exchange policy over the industrial sector, highlighting the fact that there are some empirical evidences about the deindustrialization process in Brazil nowadays. What could explain it is the behavior of the share of technological content of the products that compose the international trade of the country. Recently one can observe that there is an expressive growth in the share of the non-industrial products, which could characterize the deindustrialization process in the country. 


Vol.36, n.o4(145), 2016
   
Monetary policy in the post Keynesian theoretical framework
Philip Arestis e Fábio Henrique Bittes Terra

O objetivo desta contribuição é desenvolver um modelo pós-keynesiano de política monetária, apresentando seus objetivos, instrumentos e canais de transmissão. A originalidade desta contribuição consiste, seguindo-se as propostas de Keynes (1936, 1945), em se instituir a administração de dívida como um dos instrumentos da política monetária, em conjunto com os tradicionais, taxa de juros e regulação. Ademais, o artigo constrói seu modelo teórico resgatando amplamente os escritos originais de John Maynard Keynes. Um modelo de política monetária erigido desta forma relaciona-se diretamente aos esforços pós-keynesianos de oferecer uma forma de condução da política monetária que seja alternativa ao Regime de Metas de Inflação, proposto pelo Novo Consenso Macroeconômico.

The purpose of this contribution is to develop a Post Keynesian monetary policy model, presenting its goals, tools, and channels. The original contribution this paper develops, following Keynes’s (1936, 1945) proposals, is the use of debt management as an instrument of monetary policy, along with the interest rate and regulation. Moreover, this paper draws its monetary policy model by broadly and strongly relying on Keynes’s original writings. A monetary policy model erected upon this basis relates itself directly to the Post Keynesian efforts to offer a monetary policy framework substantially different from the Inflation Targeting Regime of the New Macroeconomic Consensus


Vol.37, n.o1(146), 2017
   
Por que o governo Dilma não pode ser classificado como novo-desenvolvimentista?
Marcelo Curado

Este artigo examina o papel da agenda novo desenvolvimentista para as ações na área econômica do governo Dilma Rousseff. O artigo pretende contribuir para a área de pesquisa que examina a relevância de escolas do pensamento econômico para a política econômica no Brasil. A conclusão central é que – a despeito da elevação da intervenção do Estado na economia – nós não podemos argumentar que a agenda novo desenvolvimentista jogou um papel importante no governo Dilma Rousseff. A ausência de uma “estratégia nacional de desenvolvimento” e de elementos essenciais da política macroeconômica novo desenvolvimentista suportam esta conclusão.

This paper examines the role of new developmentalist agenda for actions in the economic area of Dilma Rousseff's government. The paper aims to contribute to the research area that examines the relevance of schools of economic thought to economic policy in Brazil. The central conclusion is that - despite the increase in the state intervention in the economy - we cannot argue that the new developmentalist agenda played an important role in Dilma Rousseff's government. The absence of a "national development strategy" and essential elements of the new developmentalist macroeconomic policy support this conclusion.


Vol.37, n.o1(146), 2017
   
Dutch Disease-cum-financialization booms and external balance cycles in developing countries
Alberto Botta

 Neste artigo nós investigamos a dinâmica de médio a longo prazo que emerge do fenômeno da doença holandesa com financeirização. Nos inspiramos no caso mais recente do padrão de desenvolvimento da Colômbia. A doença holandesa pura causa desindustrialização, em primeiro lugar, ao apreciar permanentemente a taxa de câmbio no longo prazo. A financeirização neste caso, isto é, os maiores influxos de capital em um cenário de excesso de otimismo financeiro puxado pela existência de recursos naturais, leva no médio prazo a uma maior volatilidade na taxa de câmbio e à instabilidade macroeconômica. Este processo prejudica ainda mais o desenvolvimento do setor manufatureiro ao aumentar a incerteza na economia. A recomendação é, portanto, pela adoção do controle de capitais e por uma política monetária desenvolvimentista a fim de confrontar os fenômenos da financeirização e da doença holandesa.

 We formally investigate the medium-to-long-run dynamics emerging out of a Dutch disease-cum-financialization phenomenon. We take inspiration from the most recent Colombian development pattern. The “pure” Dutch disease first causes deindustrialization by permanently appreciating the economy’s exchange rate in the long run. Financialization, i.e. booming capital inflows taking place in a climate of natural resource-led financial over-optimism, causes medium-run exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic instability. This jeopardizes manufacturing development even further by raising macroeconomic uncertainty. We advise the adoption of capital controls and a developmentalist monetary policy to tackle these two distinct but often intertwined phenomena



Vol.37, n.o3(148), 2017
 
         
 
     
     
 
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